Global travel patterns are undergoing a swift recalibration as the escalating conflict in the Middle East disrupts flight routes, dampens consumer confidence, and forces holidaymakers to rethink their plans.

Travel companies across Europe are reporting cancellations, weaker demand in affected regions, and a noticeable pivot toward alternative destinations, even as overall appetite for travel remains resilient.

Booking disruptions hit operators

British online travel agent Lastminute.com said on Thursday the conflict has affected around 17,000 bookings, reflecting the immediate impact of airspace closures and flight disruptions across key Gulf transit hubs.

The company, which offers packages to destinations such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi, said it is having to “adapt quickly” to shifting traveller preferences.

The escalation of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran at the end of February has led to restrictions on airspace across parts of the Middle East, including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.

Lastminute.com said the affected bookings represent roughly a day and a half of its normal daily operations.

While cancellations have occurred, the company noted that many customers are choosing to amend rather than abandon their travel plans.

Despite the uncertainty, the company said “overall intent to travel remains high,” with customers increasingly prioritising flexibility and reassurance when making bookings.

Shares of Lastminute.com have fallen by 12% over the last month.

Shift towards safer destinations: Spain, Portugal in demand

The disruption has triggered a clear shift in destination preferences.

Lastminute.com reported rising demand for European alternatives, including the Canary and Balearic Islands in Spain, as well as Italian hotspots such as Sicily and Sardinia.

Industry-wide data suggests this trend is gaining momentum.

TUI Group, Europe’s largest holiday operator, said earlier this month that demand has increased for destinations such as Spain, Portugal, Greece, and Cape Verde.

“While we are seeing some cancellations in the affected areas, these are currently outweighed by customers choosing to amend their plans instead,” said Neil Swanson, a director at Tui, in a Guardian report.

Similarly, On the Beach reported a “significant slowdown” in demand for destinations including Turkey, Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt.

The company warned of a potential hit to profits and temporarily suspended its full-year guidance, citing uncertainty around the duration of the conflict and the pace of demand recovery.

Travel agents say the shift is also extending beyond Europe.

Jonathon Woodall-Johnston of Hays Travel noted strong demand for long-haul destinations, particularly in the Caribbean.

“We’re seeing particularly strong demand for our direct long-haul flying to the Caribbean, especially the Dominican Republic and Jamaica,” he said in the report.

Mark Duguid of Kuoni added that interest in Caribbean travel is “off the charts” in the near term.

Economic toll on West Asia tourism

The broader economic impact on the region is expected to be significant.

According to the World Travel & Tourism Council, West Asia’s tourism sector is losing an estimated $600 million per day in visitor spending.

The group also warned that the region could see between 23 million and 38 million fewer international visitors in 2026, translating into losses of $34 billion to $56 billion in tourism revenue.

These projections highlight the vulnerability of travel-dependent economies to geopolitical shocks, particularly when disruptions affect key transit corridors and global flight networks.

Domestic travel within India gets a fillip

While the conflict has weighed on international travel, it is also reshaping demand patterns in markets such as India, where domestic tourism is seeing a resurgence.

With fewer travellers willing to risk long-haul or transit-heavy journeys, destinations within India are witnessing a surge in bookings, a report by Firstpost said.

Hill stations in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, as well as regions such as Kashmir, Ladakh, and the northeast, are drawing increased interest.

Beach destinations, including Goa and the Andaman Islands, are also benefiting.

Data indicates strong growth in flight bookings to Indian leisure destinations, with Udaipur recording a 69% year-on-year increase, followed by Jodhpur, Bagdogra, and Srinagar.

Travel experts say the trend reflects a broader shift toward shorter, safer, and more flexible travel options.

Uncertainty abroad is encouraging travellers to rediscover domestic destinations, boosting demand for weekend getaways, nature tourism, and experiential travel.

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Whose side is Silicon Valley on anyway?

That’s what Secretary Hegseth may be wondering, given Anthropic’s refusal to grant the US military autonomy over its Claude model — a stance that makes the company an abject outlier in Silicon Valley. Many tech firms are eagerly building alliances and selling services to the federal government. Government contracts are booming, and patriotism is the new subscription software service. 

Elon’s leadership of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is the highest profile example of bringing tech talent into the government. Although DOGE overpromised a trillion dollars of cuts and underdelivered, it still helped reduce the size of the federal workforce and pared back egregious waste at the State Department. Elon has also played a role in geopolitics by offering Starlink services to Ukrainian military forces and putting a hundred or so US government satellites into orbit via SpaceX.

But Silicon Valley’s realignment behind American interests extends well beyond Elon’s network of companies. Anduril, a major tech defense firm founded by Palmer Luckey, is supplying the US military with relatively cheap next-gen hardware and software. And the meteoric rise of Palantir, headed by Alex Karp, has been revolutionizing government intelligence and law-enforcement operations.

President Trump has aggressively courted the CEOs of Silicon Valley — and not without reason. These are the titans of the US economy managing companies worth trillions of dollars and employing millions of people. They are also on the cutting edge of technological innovation and, therefore, driving the process of creative destruction. And some key tech leaders were instrumental in helping Trump win the 2024 presidential election.

Elon Musk was the most visible and well-known tech CEO campaigning for Trump, but a large number of others, from Peter Thiel to Joe Lonsdale to Larry Ellison, and many more — pejoratively called the “tech bros” — also threw their support behind Trump. Huge swaths of the crypto community backed Trump because he promised clear, fair regulation for their industry.

This support for Trump from the tech and crypto industries represents a remarkable departure from the political status quo in Silicon Valley. San Francisco, Berkeley, and tech companies have long been bastions of Democratic and Progressive ideology. And to be fair, they remain deeply blue. The “vibe shift” or realignment towards the political right has mostly been limited to corporate executives, founders, and venture capitalists. The employees of Amazon, Apple, Meta, Alphabet, and dozens of other big tech companies remain committed to Progressive ideology by roughly a 3:1 margin.

Tech executives have moved towards the political right for two reasons: energy and self-preservation. The explosion of AI has changed the technology game and ended the era of ‘pure’ software. Silicon Valley can no longer remain insulated in the world of bits; its advancement now depends entirely on the world of atoms. More than at any time in its existence, Silicon Valley needs a physical presence to advance. 

Beyond insatiable energy needs, the shift into hardware — rocketry, EVs, and autonomous drones — has forced tech companies into the same regulatory thicket that entangles the rest of the industrial economy. They must confront all the red tape created by government bureaucrats, but strongly lobbied for and supported by the political left.

Why would Google or Microsoft have cared about restrictions on nuclear power or fossil fuel utilization in the 2000s? Why would they be concerned about the EPA and other regulatory agencies choking off the development of new mines or the production of refined rare earth minerals? Their business was driven by coding and by programmers. They were only constrained by their access to talent, their customer base, and their ingenuity.

Fast-forward to the early 2020s, and the world has shifted in important ways. The push for electrification and the development of the solar panel industry has revealed the importance of the world of atoms. Silicon Valley cannot program its way to electric vehicles, solar panel production and distribution, or advanced batteries. They need inputs and refining know-how that are in rare supply in the US due to decades of tightening bureaucratic regulations.

Then there is the issue of artificial intelligence (LLMs) revolutionizing the technological infrastructure. AI represents a major advance in computing. But building and operating these models requires advanced semiconductor technology, large outputs of these advanced semiconductors, and most importantly, electricity to power these semiconductors in data centers. And so the tech companies that have inhabited the world of bits for decades have rediscovered that they depend on silicon. And they also depend on the electrons powering that silicon.

Which brings us back to the issue of realignment. Silicon Valley companies have discovered that they need inordinate amounts of electricity to drive their technology forward. But they have a problem: many politicians and regulators have been warring against energy development for decades in the name of protecting the planet. The US electric grid is old and relatively inefficient. Most legacy utility companies have tied their own hands at the demand of climate crusaders — retiring coal and gas power plants or, in the case of Germany, shuttering nuclear power plants.

Most of the data centers that tech companies want to build cannot tap the existing electrical grid without raising retail electricity rates or straining current power supplies. They also cannot rely solely — or even primarily — on wind or solar power, because these sources are intermittent and battery storage remains prohibitively expensive. Yet politically, wind and solar were treated as the only acceptable options under the Biden administration and in deep-blue states like California. The Trump administration and Republicans offered a necessary corrective, promoting all forms of energy development and advancing a policy of energy abundance.

Silicon Valley’s rightward shift has another cause: self-preservation. The Democratic Party has lurched dramatically left over the past twenty years. In the 1990s and 2000s, blue states like California would tax businesses and the wealthy more heavily than red states, but they weren’t seeking aggressive confiscation and redistribution of wealth. Now they are. The success of Democratic-Socialists in New York City and in Seattle, as well as the proposal to tax people’s wealth, not just their income, are symptomatic of Democrats’ leftward shift.

Perhaps more alarming is the perceived authoritarianism of the left, which began with pandemic-era lockdowns and has since evolved into aggressive enforcement of speech codes and militant identity politics. Rebellion and protest began erupting within tech companies. This political and cultural shift has sent a message to tech executives loud and clear.

Rather than simply bearing higher taxes to support broader welfare programs, and otherwise being respected or at least ignored, wealthy founders and venture capitalists have discovered that they are hated by left-leaning constituencies. The reaction to Elon and DOGE is instructive.

People were so outraged by him and his politics that they vandalized Teslas and firebombed dealerships. The open hostility in rhetoric towards wealth, success, and productivity caused leaders in Silicon Valley to reassess the political landscape — resulting in significant political migration to the Republican Party and physical migration to red states.

This realignment is still in its early stages. Whether this shift is transitory remains to be seen. But at the very least, being a Republican is no longer a mark of shame among the leaders of Silicon Valley, though it may still be among the rank and file. We are also in the early stages of the physical realignment caused by confiscatory tax proposals in California and other states, labyrinthine bureaucratic regulation, and general hostility to entrepreneurship and business. California alone has seen several billionaires relocate in the past few months, including the founders of Google and Meta.

Nothing guarantees Silicon Valley and San Francisco will remain the center of the tech world. In fact, if history is any indication, industrial and creative centers often change locations — just ask anyone living in Detroit or Chicago in the mid-twentieth century, or in Scranton, Pennsylvania, in the late nineteenth century. This might be a bit premature, but we are heading for a Silicon Rust Belt on the West Coast replaced by Silicon Prairie or Silicon Hills. If that materializes, it won’t be because of trade policy or unfettered capitalism. It will be because of political and regulatory failure.

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As a college student with little understanding of how money works, Caleb Hammer racked up thousands in credit card debt, an outsized car note, and private student loans. That’s when he discovered the previous generation of financial advice personalities: Dave Ramsey, Graham Stephan, and Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad. He absorbed their lessons, stabilized his spending, accelerated his earnings, and dug himself out of debt. 

“Now my mission is to have the conversations that I wish someone had with me over a decade ago,” he says of his YouTube channel, where more than 500 applicants have now submitted their spending situations to his tough-love, line-by-line audit. 

Hammer’s social media rise has been meteoric: his top-ten-ranked YouTube series, Financial Audit, has collected billions of views, and its most watchable moments are repackaged for Facebook, Twitter, and TikTok. The message of fiscal discipline and personal responsibility seems to be reaching new audiences. The YouTube channel has three million subscribers and now offers premium subscriptions, a user community, and branded budgeting software.

Hammer’s success demonstrates demand for financial accountability and education, and provides vivid examples of how personal choices create needless financial crises. His content capitalizes on internet discourse and the economy of attention, using moral outrage and entertainment value to present lessons that Americans desperately need.

Hammer deliberately leans into controversy and games the attention algorithm by getting special permission from his guests to create unflattering thumbnails that call them “moron,” “loser,” and “liar.” 

It’s a considerably spicier format than those of Dave Ramsey and Suze Orman, who emphasized conservative social values along with financial responsibility. While Hammer condemns “BS purchases” and living beyond one’s means, he doesn’t specifically suggest how people ought to conduct themselves beyond their financial choices. Still, guests submitting all their financial statements provide plenty of opportunity for Caleb’s vivid criticisms: “You are behind on your mortgage and you DoorDashed Wendy’s? You creature.”

The episode content can be explosive. Married couples learn about each other’s debts and spending habits for the first time. Gamers spending the rent money on digital goods get a serious setting straight, as do Disney-obsessed parents spending their kids’ college funds and ex-sugar-babies trapped in cycles of payday borrowing. Viewers get vivid warnings against traps like sports betting and compulsive shopping, but also of bad debt, insidious “pay in four” installment plans, and predatory car loans. 

For Hammer’s guests, the results are undeniable. As an incentive to submit to this ritual humiliation, they receive financial counseling, mental health care where appropriate, free access to his budgeting and investing software, and a handcrafted budget designed to get them out of debt and onto firm financial ground. They also get a huge helping of accountability on a very public stage (the faint of heart ought not wander into the comments section) after signing the show’s many disclaimers, waivers, and consent agreements.

Of the self-selecting applicants who appeared on Hammer’s Financial Audit program in 2024, “the average guest had paid off $22,807 of debt in 12 months [after the audit], and the median had paid off $12,000 in 8 months.”

When Private Choices Have Public Consequences

While growing his audience and creating his central messages of personal finance, Hammer hasn’t revealed much about his personal politics. But combing through the spending habits of struggling citizens reveals uncomfortable truths about modern poverty: self-defeating behavior often plays a role. His content consistently emphasizes how individual financial decisions ripple outward, affecting not just the spender but also lenders, family members, and, at times, taxpayers.

Particularly, Hammer articulates how the fungibility of money results in taxpayers footing the bill for bad decisions (not to mention family and friends who lend to or rely on the irresponsible interviewees). Of one resident of a rent-stabilized apartment who spent frivolously elsewhere, he groaned, “Great. Thanks, City of Seattle, everyone’s rents went up endlessly to subsidize her Hawaiian vacation.” The comment is partly rhetorical flourish, but it reflects a broader theme of the show: financial irresponsibility rarely exists in isolation.

Of one guest’s refusal to get a better job, he wailed, “She is holding back our civilization! Our GDP would be double if we didn’t have these types of people.” When the guest pushed back, arguing that her reckless spending stimulates the economy and contributes to GDP, he slumped onto the desk, whimpering, “No, you’re right, we do need morons like you to go spend more than they have.” 

The show has a general appeal to schadenfreude or morbid fascination, but his guests aren’t total outliers. Financial insecurity becomes a way of life for many, and we end up publicly subsidizing that situation in cases where we should not. 

Access to Information ≠ Behavior Change

What makes Hammer’s success notable is not just the spectacle, but the substance. He is delivering a form of basic financial education — budgeting, delayed gratification, the mechanics of compounding — that isn’t taught systematically in schools. While some educators resist attempts to replace traditional economics courses with personal finance, Hammer’s content suggests the broad social value of starting with everyday, individual incentives.

The basic principles of personal finance function less like technical knowledge and more like civic virtues: defer gratification, differentiate between wants and needs, spend less than you earn, and pay back what you borrow. 

A layer of added complexity, still readily accessible in plain language, reveals how compounding works (for you or against you), and how to avoid accumulating debts and account fees that sap away your savings. Hammer repeatedly emphasizes the time element of savings and investing: his median guest has already lost at least a decade of potential compounding, which can shrink potential retirement income by half. 

Guests don’t end up on Hammer’s Financial Audit after making good money decisions. That wouldn’t fulfill his format. But for those who don’t have to undo years of damage, many other YouTube channels offer endless, free advice, from financial fundamentals to advanced insights for experienced investors.

The abundance of information has exposed a deeper problem. Anyone with an internet connection can access high-quality financial advice suitable to their situation. The harder challenge is behavioral — helping people recognize good advice and, more importantly, act on it.

Hammer’s format, equal parts education, confrontation, and entertainment, appears to bridge that gap.

“People come in for the tea,” he says, using the Gen Z shorthand for gossip. “They exit with the finances.”

His rapid rise suggests the future of financial literacy will depend as much on engagement and emotion as on information.

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Delta Air Lines stock price has done better than other American airlines during the ongoing Iran war. It has jumped by 5% in the last 30 days, while other companies like Southwest, United Airlines, and American Airlines have dropped by over 10% in this period. 

DAL stock vs other top airlines | Source: TradingView

Delta Air Lines to publish earnings on April 8

The DAL stock price has done better than other airline companies during the ongoing Iran war that has pushed jet fuel prices higher. Data compiled by IATA shows that the average jet fuel price jumped to $195 a barrel, up by 103% from a month earlier.

Historically, many American airlines helped to deal with these price swings through hedging, a move that most of them ended recently. Delta does not hedge these fuel costs, meaning that it is now having to pay the full price, a move that will undoubtedly affect its margins.

The company will provide more information on how the war will impact its business this year. On the positive side, the company has navigated such shocks before, including in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, leading to higher crude oil prices and flight disruptions.

Also, there is a possibility that jet fuel prices will crash once the war ends, which may happen in the coming weeks or months. Donald Trump has set a deadline for about 2 weeks although analysts believes that it will last for longer.

The most recent results showed that Delta’s business did well in the fourth quarter and last year despite the challenges in the civil aviation industry. Its fourth quarter revenue rose to $16 billion, while the operating profit jumped to $1.5 billion. The company made an operating cash flow of $2.3 billion.

For the year, Delta made over $63.4 billion in revenue, $5.8 billion in operating profit, and an operating cash flow of $14.1 billion. Its total debt and lease obligations ended the year at $14.1 billion.

The company’s business has done well because of its strong market share in key routes in the US and the emphasis on premium seats. It is also cutting the debt it accumulated during the pandemic.

Analysts expect the upcoming results to show that its revenue rose by 5.38% in the first quarter to $14.8 billion, while the earnings-per-share (EPS) rose from 46 cents to 62 cents. 

Chances are that the real numbers will be lower than these estimates because of the war and soaring fuel prices. The annual revenue is expected to grow to $67.2 billion this year followed by $70 billion next year.

DAL stock price technical analysis 

Delta Air Lines stock chart | Source: TradingView 

The daily chart shows that the DAL stock price has done well in the past few weeks, moving from a low of $55.20 in March to the current $66.7.

The stock has formed a harami candlestick pattern, which is made up of a small bullish candle that follows a bigger bearish one.

Delta Air Lines stock remains above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) and the ascending trendline that links the lowest swings since June last year  

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the stock continues rising, possibly to the year-to-date high of $76, which is up by 14% above the current level.

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As Meta Platforms and Alphabet-owned Google head into a closely watched earnings season after a major legal setback, analysts say the results could serve as the next catalyst for the stocks.

Analysts at Wells Fargo have reiterated an overweight rating on both companies, signalling continued confidence in their long-term outlook, even though they have trimmed the price targets.

Shares of Meta and Alphabet have come under modest pressure following the verdict, which found both companies liable for contributing to harm caused by their platforms.

A Los Angeles jury awarded $6 million in damages, with Meta bearing 70% of the liability and Alphabet’s YouTube responsible for the remainder.

Both companies have said they will appeal the ruling.

“Teen mental health is profoundly complex and cannot be linked to a single app,” a Meta spokesperson said, while Google argued the case “misunderstands YouTube, which is a responsibly built streaming platform, not a social media site.”

Meta is down about 13% in the last one month, while Alphabet is down 4%.

Analysts, however, appear to be focusing more on fundamentals than on legal risks, particularly with earnings due later this month.

Meta outlook supported by strong revenue growth

Wells Fargo expects Meta to deliver first-quarter revenue of $55.9 billion, representing a 32% increase from a year earlier and slightly above consensus estimates of $55.4 billion.

The brokerage also anticipates second-quarter revenue guidance in the range of $58 billion to $61 billion, broadly in line with market expectations.

Analyst Ken Gawrelski noted that expectations around Meta’s artificial intelligence roadmap have become more measured, particularly after reports that the company delayed the launch of a new AI model to May due to performance concerns.

This moderation in expectations could improve the stock’s risk-reward profile, although the analyst cautioned that patience will be required as the company scales its AI investments.

Meta is pursuing an ambitious strategy, with plans to invest as much as $600 billion in compute infrastructure and talent through 2028 to strengthen its position in consumer AI applications.

The lower price target of $765, down from $856, reflects a reduced valuation multiple applied to longer-term earnings forecasts.

Alphabet cloud growth in spotlight

For Alphabet, attention is likely to centre on its cloud business, which continues to emerge as a key growth driver.

Wells Fargo forecasts cloud revenue of $19.7 billion for the first quarter, implying 61% growth year-on-year and a notable acceleration from 48% growth in the previous quarter.

This is also well ahead of broader market expectations of around 50% growth.

Wells Fargo has lowered its price target on Alphabet to $361 from $397.

The firm expects that improving cloud performance could lead analysts to revise their estimates for Alphabet’s revenue and operating income upward, particularly after a period of pressure on free cash flow projections.

While Alphabet typically does not provide detailed second-quarter guidance, management is expected to highlight strong demand for compute capacity while remaining cautious about global macroeconomic conditions.

Wells Fargo maintained its capital expenditure forecast of $175 billion to $185 billion, reflecting continued heavy investment in AI and cloud infrastructure.

Valuations reset but long-term case intact

Both Meta and Alphabet have seen some valuation compression in recent months.

However, analysts argue that the long-term investment case remains intact, supported by expanding addressable markets and the integration of artificial intelligence across their platforms.

Citizens has also reiterated a positive stance on Alphabet, with a $385 price target, citing its strong positioning in AI-driven search and cloud services.

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Airline investors are facing renewed caution as rising oil prices tied to the Iran conflict threaten to squeeze profits across the US aviation sector.

While travel demand in the United States remains resilient for now, analysts warn that escalating fuel costs are putting significant pressure on airline margins, prompting lowered earnings forecasts and heightened uncertainty for stockholders.

Jet fuel surge hits margins

Crude oil and jet fuel prices have climbed sharply amid concerns that the Iran conflict could escalate. United Airlines shares fell 6.6%, American Airlines dropped 6.5%, and Delta Air Lines lost 4.6% on Thursday although most of them pared some of the losses.

The US Global Jets ETF declined 4.1% after surging nearly 7% over the previous two days. Crude oil futures climbed 12.1% Thursday, reversing recent declines as the geopolitical risk outlook worsened.

Analysts note that the combination of fixed costs and near-term bookings makes the impact of higher fuel prices immediate.

Melius Research analyst Conor Cunningham studied a competitive domestic leisure route and found that a typical 737-800 flight has swung from a $1,500 profit to a $3,900 loss at current fuel prices.

“The math is straightforward,” Cunningham wrote, “fuel costs have nearly doubled while nonfuel costs and revenue are largely fixed, ‘locked in by bookings made before the conflict began.'”

Travel demand holds, but risks loom

Despite the higher costs, US travel demand has not yet declined. Data from the Transportation Security Administration showed 78.54 million passengers screened at airport checkpoints in March, up from 77.23 million a year ago.

TD Cowen analyst Tom Fitzgerald noted that overall air-carrier traffic rose 1% in March, outpacing the 0.5% increase in available seats. However, he warned that the full effect of prolonged high fuel costs may still materialize, potentially curbing travel demand in the months ahead.

“The likelihood of a prolonged period of higher energy prices” has investors concerned about future revenue, Fitzgerald said, prompting him to reduce price targets for several major airlines.

Investor caution intensifies

As the Iran conflict continues to influence crude markets, airlines with higher leverage and fuel sensitivity, including JetBlue Airways and Alaska Air Group, are expected to face the toughest challenges.

TD Cowen lowered its price target for United Airlines to $120 from $140, while maintaining a Buy rating, and highlighted Delta as the most defensive in the current environment.

Fitzgerald emphasized that “further volatility” in oil markets could create both near-term challenges and potential buying opportunities, but the sector faces a delicate balancing act between rising operational costs and sustained travel demand.

With earnings season for airlines beginning April 8 with Delta, investors will closely monitor whether carriers can navigate a landscape of elevated fuel prices and geopolitical uncertainty without eroding profitability.

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US stocks closed slightly mixed on Thursday after paring deeper losses, as diplomatic signals from the Middle East helped calm markets rattled earlier by President Donald Trump’s threats of tougher action against Iran ahead of the long holiday weekend.

Investor sentiment steadied in the afternoon after Iran’s foreign ministry said it was drafting a protocol with Oman to manage traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, while Britain noted that dozens of countries were discussing ways to end the crisis.

These developments eased worries about prolonged disruption to global oil flows.

Oil prices surge as geopolitical risks persist

Stocks opened lower amid rising oil prices after Trump signaled more aggressive attacks ahead of the Good Friday holiday.

Front-month US crude prices surged 11% to around $111 a barrel, while Brent crude closed up about 7% near $108.

Traders, however, priced oil at about $82 per barrel in October, signaling expectations that the disruption may be temporary.

The surge in oil contributed to extreme intraday volatility. At their lows, the Dow was down more than 600 points, or 1.4%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 1.5% and 2.2%, respectively.

The Dow ultimately ended the day down 61.23 points, or 0.13%, at 46,504.51. The S&P 500 gained 7.26 points, or 0.11%, to 6,582.58, while the Nasdaq rose 35.92 points, or 0.18%, to 21,876.87.

Investors navigate volatility ahead of long weekend

Market volatility was further highlighted by the CBOE Volatility Index, which rose above 25. “I think investors are having knee-jerk reactions — they want the news to be good, but then think about it a little longer and decide perhaps the uncertainty is still too high, hence the high intraday volatility,” said Melissa Brown, managing director of investment decision research at SimCorp in a CNBC report.

Trump’s address on Wednesday night intensified market swings. While he noted that the US is “getting very close” to ending the Iran war, he added that the nation would hit Tehran “extremely hard.” He said, “Over the next two to three weeks, we’re going to bring them back to the stone ages where they belong.”

Brown noted that oil prices would likely “stay higher for longer,” with gas prices continuing to pressure inflation.

Investors were also watching for upcoming economic data.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 28 and March’s nonfarm payroll report are set for release, while markets will remain closed for Good Friday.

Stocks most resilient to economic stress performed better, with utilities rising, while consumer discretionary stocks, including Tesla, fell.

Globalstar shares surged after reports of Amazon’s talks to acquire its low-earth-orbit satellite company.

Thursday’s session highlighted the tension between geopolitical risks, energy market volatility, and broader investor caution as the US heads into a shortened trading week.

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Investors are running into Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR) following its historic launch of “Artemis II” – which successfully sent four astronauts on a lunar flyby on Apr. 1.

The Artemis news came only days after “NASA” selected LUNR for its commercial lunar payload services (CLPS) task order, further adding technical validation to the firm’s infrastructure.

However, with rumours of billionaire Elon Musk’s aerospace company SpaceX going public – it’s reasonable to question whether it’s as far as Intuitive Machines stock goes in 2026.

After all, a SpaceX debut could act as a capital vacuum, potentially draining liquidity from smaller aerospace players as institutional portfolios pivot toward the industry titan.

LUNR stock is well-positioned for SpaceX IPO

For those invested in LUNR shares, here’s the good news – the impact of a SpaceX IPO may be exactly the opposite on Intuitive Machines.

While it seems logical that a giant like SpaceX would “cannibalize” investment, the market is already treating its reported confidential filing as a “rising tide that lifts all boats.”

Instead of stealing capital from Intuitive Machines, the SpaceX news is proving a major “tailwind” that helped LUNR hit a new year-to-date high on Thursday morning.

Why? Simply because of sector re-rating. Note that SpaceX is reportedly targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation; Wall Street is being forced to change how they value smaller players.

Simply put, if the industry leader is worth trillions, market participants must start looking at smaller firms like Intuitive Machines and realize that they might just be significantly undervalued in 2026.

In a way, the SpaceX IPO legitimizes the entire space economy for institutional investors who may have previously stayed on the sidelines.

How to play Intuitive Machines shares at current levels?

Intuitive Machines shares are insulated from the potential cannibalizing effect of a SpaceX listing also because the firm’s business complements, not competes with the Elon Musk company.

These two businesses actually occupy different layers of the space stack.

SpaceX is the railroad – the infrastructure and the launch vehicle, while LUNR is the “last mile” –  specializing in lunar landing, lunar data networks, and surface operations; niche services that SpaceX often partners with rather than replaces.

What’s also worth mentioning is that a SpaceX IPO, while massive, is broadly expected to be super exclusive.

Reports suggest that only 30% of it will go to retail, with the bulk snapped up by sizable sovereign wealth funds and “mega-cap” institutions.

For an average investor or a mid-sized fund, therefore, LUNR remains the most accessible “pure-play” for direct exposure to the NASA missions and the lunar economy.

This is why Wall Street remains bullish on Intuitive Machines Inc for the remainder of 2026. The consensus rating on LUNR shares sits at “moderate buy” currently, with the mean price objective of about $26 indicating potential upside of another 8% from here.

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Nvidia and other semiconductor stocks remained under pressure on Thursday, as renewed concerns over the Iran conflict weighed on investor sentiment.

Nvidia shares fell 1.9% to $172.41 in early trading. However, the stock had clawed back some of those losses to trade mostly flat at the time of writing.

The move tracked broader market weakness, with the S&P 500 down 0.2% after remarks from Donald Trump failed to ease fears of a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

Supply chain risks

While semiconductor companies have not yet seen direct operational impacts, attention is shifting to potential supply chain disruptions in Asia.

Much of the region depends on oil and gas shipments that typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently effectively blocked.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s largest chipmaker, is particularly exposed to energy supply risks. Its American depositary receipts fell 3.3% in morning trading.

TSMC accounts for roughly 9% of Taiwan’s electricity consumption, with natural gas serving as the island’s largest energy source.

Taiwanese authorities have said existing liquefied natural gas reserves should last through May.

Analysts maintain positive view on Nvidia

Despite the pullback, analysts continue to highlight Nvidia’s strategic positioning.

Benchmark reiterated a Buy rating on the stock with a $250 price target.

The firm cited Nvidia’s expanded partnership with Marvell Technology as a key development.

It also maintained a Buy rating on Marvell, with a $130 price target.

Benchmark said the partnership expansion and Nvidia’s related investment represent meaningful new information for institutional investors, though it has not yet revised its financial estimates for either company.

Nvidia stock remains under stress

Shares of Nvidia have come under pressure in recent months, falling nearly 20% from their record high in October amid a broader global market selloff.

Part of the decline has been linked to geopolitical concerns, particularly tensions involving the US and Israel with Iran.

Investors are wary that elevated oil prices could stoke inflation and force central banks to maintain or even tighten interest rates, weighing on high-growth technology stocks.

As a result, Nvidia is now trading at one of its lower valuation levels in recent years.

Nvidia is currently valued at about 20 times its expected earnings over the next 12 months, marking its lowest price-to-earnings multiple since early 2019.

Investors use P/E multiples to gauge a stock’s valuation relative to its anticipated future earnings.

With the growth of online trading apps, tracking such metrics has become significantly easier and more accessible to market participants.

At the same time, investors are reassessing the pace of returns from heavy spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Major customers such as Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon continue to invest heavily in AI, but concerns remain that these expenditures may take longer to translate into meaningful revenue and profit growth, adding to pressure on sentiment.

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Shares of US liquefied natural gas (LNG) companies have rallied sharply amid the ongoing Iran conflict, as rising global gas prices boost near-term profitability.

However, analysts warn that sustained high prices could undermine long-term demand and complicate expansion plans for the industry.

The rally has been fueled by supply disruptions and geopolitical risks, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of global LNG supply flows.

Much of this supply originates from Qatar, where damage to the Ras Laffan energy complex has removed about 25% of the country’s capacity in the year.

US LNG stocks like Venture Global, Cheniere Energy, and NextDecade have surged since the start of the conflict.

NextDecade stock has gained 8% while Cheniere Energy traded 2% higher on Thursday.

Supply disruptions drive price surge

The tightening of global supply has sent LNG prices sharply higher. Spot prices in Europe and Asia have risen 67% and 84%, respectively, since the first US strikes on Iran, outpacing the 48% increase in Brent crude.

“The gas price ramp has been the most important takeaway for markets. It suggests the underlying market dynamics are tighter than crude,” said Jefferies analyst Mike Wilson.

Further disruptions in Australia have compounded the issue. Chevron’s Wheatstone LNG plant is expected to take weeks to return to full output, while Woodside’s Karratha facility continues to face cyclone-related challenges.

Analysts estimate that up to 35 million tons of LNG supply could be lost from the market in 2026.

With global supply constrained, US LNG exporters have benefited.

Shares of Venture Global have surged more than 50% since the conflict began, while Cheniere Energy has gained about 19%. NextDecade has also climbed roughly 47%, outperforming the broader MSCI Energy index.

Analysts note that companies with greater exposure to spot pricing have seen the strongest gains, as they can better capitalize on elevated global prices.

Strong demand meets limited capacity

At the same time, demand for LNG remains firm, particularly in Europe, where storage levels are well below seasonal norms.

Inventories across the European Union were around 28% full near the end of March, with the Netherlands at just 6%, prompting early efforts to refill reserves ahead of winter.

Europe continues to rely heavily on imported LNG, and the price gap between European benchmarks and US Henry Hub prices—currently near $3 per MMBtu—has incentivized exports.

However, with US export terminals already operating near full capacity, limiting the ability to increase supply. Additional cargoes must be redirected rather than newly produced.

“If you want an extra ship of US gas in Berlin, you have to bid high enough to divert it away from Tokyo,” said Bernstein analyst Irene Himona.

The disruption of Qatari supply has also intensified competition between Europe and Asia, further driving up prices and tightening global balances.

High prices threaten long-term demand

While the current environment supports profits, higher-for-longer LNG prices could weigh on future demand growth, particularly in cost-sensitive markets.

According to Shell, LNG prices in Asia need to fall below $10 per million British thermal units to stimulate demand in India.

Current prices are roughly double that level, limiting growth. India’s LNG imports rose only modestly last year, up 4% from 2021 levels.

In some regions, even lower prices may be required. Analysts suggest prices may need to drop below $5 per MMBtu for LNG to compete effectively with coal in markets such as China, Cambodia, and the Philippines.

If prices remain elevated, countries may turn to alternative energy sources.

In Pakistan, LNG imports declined after the 2022 energy crisis, while solar installations surged as consumers and businesses shifted to renewable energy.

Governments are also reassessing energy security strategies. The current crisis may encourage greater investment in domestic energy production, renewables, or nuclear power, reducing reliance on imported LNG.

For investors, the outlook presents a mixed picture. While LNG producers are benefiting from a near-term windfall, much of this upside is already reflected in share prices. The longer-term impact of sustained high prices and shifting demand patterns remains a key risk for the sector.

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